3 Comments

Seems like you might have a bug. I entered the blog through this post, but posted a comment on the stock market/politics post. It posted here for some reason.

Expand full comment

Hi Brian, interesting take on current events, I very muck enjoyed reading it. To me, it was very Ray Dalio-esque. If you haven't been following his work on macro-economics, and empire life cycles, I highly recommend you do. I'd also suggest looking into Mike Maloney's view on monetary history.

Maloney dives further into the down fall of the roman empire, and how it actually lasted much longer than history books suggest. While the western roman empire fell, the eastern (byzantine empire) actually lasted for thousands of years, and it was entirely dependent on how the two empires dealt with debt and currency debasement.

Dalio, and Maloney, and many others would argue that America's increasingly looming fall has less to do with politics, and more to do with debt, and debasement which is leading to the loss of our status as the worlds reserve currency. China and Russia are already moving away from the dollar as a medium for bank transfers -- I believe over a 50% fall this year. The reason it doesn't have much to do with politics is because increasing the debt, and debasing the currency seem to be the only policy that both parties can agree upon.

As for the efficient market theory, I think its a quite simple argument that Wall Street wouldn't exist if it were totally efficient. I do agree that it is very difficult for us laymen to beat the market, but I am an optimist (possibly to a fault) so I will continue trying. I think current market inefficiencies -- like the ones you pointed out, and every valuation metric (Schiller p/e etc) -- pose the question: are you patient enough to wait the very feasible 20 to 30 years to experience market efficiency? I know I'm not.

Anyway, I see a lot of opportunities in the markets as a whole, some of which have peen paying off well for me recently. I'm always excited to discuss markets and macro economics with others who enjoy educating themselves in these matters. I look forward to seeing more content like this! 👍

Expand full comment